February 1, 2026

WHO THIS ARTICLE FOR?

Buyers considering a $3-$10 million home purchase in 2026, whether you’re starting out, trading up, or scaling down and want clarity on how much you really need to spend.

Just because you can spend $6 million doesn’t mean you should. In today’s market, buying smarter doesn’t always mean negotiating harder, it can also mean reframing what value actually looks like.

Over the last year, we’ve had the privilege of helping more and more young people – children of past clients, our own children, and people at the start of their journey.

It’s been some of the most emotionally rewarding work we’ve done.

But with these younger buyers has come a new perspective: they think differently. And frankly, in a world where growth isn’t guaranteed, they might be onto something.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the decade to 2026, the default assumption that “property always goes up” no longer holds in every pocket of Melbourne. What does that mean for you? It means this:

Spending less can be smarter.
Capital preservation matters at every age.
Lifestyle has real value.
Older properties, unique layouts, smaller scale developments may offer better long-term return than flashy, high-spec builds.
Good buyer advocacy isn’t just about getting a $50K discount. It’s possibly more about not spending $2M too much.

We grew up believing that every dollar you parked in property would grow. That belief built a lot of wealth, and a lot of good lives. But times change. And if we want to keep building good lives for ourselves and our kids, we need to think differently, not fearfully, but consciously.

Growth is no longer a given. Blindly following the old rulebook might mean locking yourself into a property you can’t grow from, can’t get out of, and ultimately don’t enjoy.

This is especially relevant for younger buyers, but just as meaningful for downsizers. At 55, you may not need the same growth trajectory you needed at 25 but you still need flexibility, capital agility, and comfort. Maybe even more.

A True Story

Just recently, we helped a client purchase a unique apartment in Brighton -priced at $2.8 million, notably less than comparable newer properties in the high threes.

It wasn’t brand new. But it was right for them, for the future, for the market.

The logic?

If growth’s going to be flat anyway, better to “flatten” it from $2.8M than from $3.8M. Same asset class. Similar enjoyment. A million-dollar saving.

Or, to put it another way: just because you can spend $3.8M doesn’t mean you should.

KEY LEARNINGS

Think in Allocation, Not Just Price
A $6M property might leave you undercapitalised elsewhere. A $4M home + $2M liquid could serve you far better over 10 years.
Lifestyle is Return
Mortgage stress is real. Would you rather a $5M home with holidays, education, and ease or an $8M place and nothing left over?
3 Bedrooms > 1 Bedroom and also primary schools when you are talking to younger people, just starting out.
It’s not just about the vibe. And not every time should you spend less eg $1m. It’s about future-proofing. Kids or no kids, flexibility always holds value – so maybe get 3 bedrooms and spend $1.4m for in the run you save a lot in fees, a move and growth is pretty good for these sorts of homes.
Building vs. Land as a % of sale price
If you’re paying top dollar for a new build, understand this: buildings depreciate (especially when you go past that 7-10 year sweet spot), land appreciates.
Pay attention to what you’re actually buying. As a general rule the higher the % of land to better the chances for growth – general rule of course if you then throw in a whooping reno cost you may be changing the percentages negatively.

RECOMMENDATIONS / OPTIONS

Redefine your brief. Could a $4M property serve your $6M goals?
Seek uniqueness, not perfection. A slightly older, more characterful home may outperform a cookie-cutter new build.
Don’t just “get a discount” – have a less budget. That’s the real win – a life bonus.
Use a buyer advocate not just to transact, but to reframe.

The best outcome is not just a fair price – it is also a better decision.

HOW IT HELPS

This approach won’t just help you save money. It helps protect your energy, liquidity, enjoyment, and future options. It means buying into your life, not just a postcode.

NEXT STEPS

If you’re thinking about buying in 2026, whether it’s $3M or $10M, we’d love to help you explore what’s possible—perhaps even spend less, and get more.

📞 Call Mal directly

📧 Send a confidential brief

💬 Book a 15-min strategy call

Let’s talk about what you really want and how to get it.

CONTACT

Mal James – 0408 107 988 – Buyer Advocate

Grounded strategy. Quiet wins. Real value.

1.8m	East Melbourne		Apartment
2m	Carnegie	to Richmond
7m	Armadale –	Malvern Larger block and family home	Bigger yard, will reno
6m	Camberwell Hawthorn	Camberwell Hawthorn	Renovation Value Add up to $2m

2.7m	Prahran	South Yarra,	Small home
4.5m	Hawthorn	Malvern	Family Home
3.2m	Mont Albert	Surrey Hills, Canterbury	Family Home
$5m	Near Camberwell Grammar	Canterbury, Balwyn	Modern Family Home

If you do great – we can come and have a look. Simone 0400304111 or Mal 0408107988

Fresh February 2026

15 Grey Street Balwyn 733

66 Gordon Street Balwyn 590

31 Vautier Street Elwood

6-8 Mangarra Road Canterbury 810

34 Foam Street Elwood 749

24 Bendigo Street Elwood

21 Brunel Street Malvern East

23 Dean Street Kew 680

2a Alexander Avenue Canterbury 712

14 Cowper Street Brighton

3 Leonard Street Deepdene 720

8a Grace Street Camberwell 761

20 Clayton Road Balwyn 580

79 Brunel Street Malvern East

Welcome to 2026 – The Smart Money is…

Buy/Sellers and Sellers considering a $3-$10 million home sale in 2026

I hope you’ve had a restful summer – some sun, a swim, maybe a quiet glass in the garden. We had a bit of that too. But we also worked.

And the funny thing? The stories we kept hearing weren’t new at all.

SAME MARKET, SAME PATTERNS

Over the break, a lovely couple in South Yarra invited me around for a chat. They’d already run two public campaigns – two different agents, no interest, no offers. Now they were considering a third. Same price goal (more than they paid two years ago), only now with no staging, and they… well, I had to be honest with them. I didn’t think we could add value in their third attempt.

Similar stories came in over the break – no sale, no offers, just more silence.

These aren’t one-offs. They’re a pattern. You only need to read our October and December analysis on Expression of Interest campaigns to see it clearly.

(I’ve updated the table of September/October EOIs at the top of this article.)

THE FACTS – THE EOI STATS ARE CLEAR

Only 29% sold at the close of the Spring campaign.
Four weeks later, just 13% of the unsold had found a buyer.
Another eight weeks on – only four more sold.
And of those? Three sold below quote.

All up: 50% sold. 50% didn’t – after 16 weeks of trying.

So What’s the Alternative?

The idea of off-market, multi-agent selling isn’t complicated. It simply starts from the observation that no single agent sells every property in the $5m–$20m range. Different agents have different buyer pools. So rather than choosing one and hoping for the best – while the others quietly move on (some working against you) – why not bring them all to the table from the start and in your corner?

Managed well, multi-agent doesn’t mean chaos. It means strategy. And in practice, it looks like this:

A quiet, coordinated approach – no public noise.
No blown campaign or wasted advertising spend.
No awkward questions from friends or the press about why it hasn’t sold.
And no price-drop spiral after a failed auction or EOI – as we establish what it is along the way (privately).

JAMES RESULTS since our last newsletter

Since our last Marketnews update, we’ve been involved in $20 million worth of transactions across four properties. Two were off-market, multi-agent – both sold well, with patience, smart quoting, and strong coordination between agents. One was taken to market publicly, and to be straightforward, we didn’t set any records on that one – it was in a difficult regional market and it had to be sold.

In one sale, it took five, in another, just two agents were enough to get it done. But it was multi-agent and it’s was quiet.

This Isn’t a New Idea

Overseas, brokers and multiple-agent models have been standard practice for years – quiet, private matching of buyer and seller with one on one visits not the full on lack of buyer privacy of a public open. Australia’s high-end market is ready for the same approach.

Worth a Conversation?

We’re not asking you to call because we say the right things or we are in some way more virtuous. Nope this is business. We’d rather you look at our results and decide for yourself.

We’ve helped literally hundreds of families navigate both off-market and on-market sales through a multi-agent approach.

And if you ever decide a public, single-agent campaign is a better move after you have spoken, even tried with us? Absolutely no harm done. You haven’t publicly failed at anything – you’ve simply started with a smarter first step.